SOCRATES

Search Results


Search parameters:

  • Name(s): Top 10 by Maximum Probability
  • Order by Maximum Probability
  • Return first 10 items


Data current as of 2020 Nov 29 16:06 UTC

Computation Interval: Start = 2020 Nov 29 12:00:00.000, Stop = 2020 Dec 06 12:00:00.000
Computation Threshold: 5.0 km
Considering: 5,994 Primaries, 19,801 Secondaries (38,013 Conjunctions)

See notes at bottom of page for data field descriptions

Re-sort results by Minimum Range, Time In.

Action NORAD
Catalog
Number
Name Days
Since
Epoch
Max
Probability
Dilution
Threshold
(km)
Min
Range
(km)
Relative
Velocity
(km/sec)
Start
(UTC)
TCA
(UTC)
Stop
(UTC)
40137 CHUANGXIN 1-04 (CX-1-04) [+] 5.544 1.031E-02 0.006 0.016 12.727
35378 CZ-4 DEB [-] 5.908 2020 Dec 05 01:09:49.032 2020 Dec 05 01:09:49.425 2020 Dec 05 01:09:49.818
31698 TERRASAR-X [+] 0.280 7.845E-03 0.006 0.024 0.000
36605 TANDEM-X [+] 0.146 2020 Nov 29 12:00:00.000 2020 Nov 29 17:14:01.301 2020 Dec 01 03:05:27.036
18709 COSMOS 1904 [?] 5.649 3.645E-03 0.029 0.100 9.281
08597 SL-8 R/B [-] 6.589 2020 Dec 05 04:47:45.456 2020 Dec 05 04:47:45.995 2020 Dec 05 04:47:46.533
27421 SPOT 5 [-] 0.806 2.877E-03 0.049 0.104 13.539
38169 FENGYUN 1C DEB [-] 1.939 2020 Nov 30 06:03:38.839 2020 Nov 30 06:03:39.208 2020 Nov 30 06:03:39.577
15930 COSMOS 1670 [?] 0.297 2.766E-03 0.046 0.092 13.846
43335 SL-8 DEB [-] 1.189 2020 Nov 29 19:34:37.335 2020 Nov 29 19:34:37.696 2020 Nov 29 19:34:38.057
09022 COSMOS 841 [?] 3.351 1.980E-03 0.034 0.066 14.085
10520 COSMOS 968 [?] 3.093 2020 Dec 01 22:44:14.959 2020 Dec 01 22:44:15.314 2020 Dec 01 22:44:15.669
44484 AEROCUBE 10B (DOUGSAT) [+] 5.285 1.788E-03 0.012 0.050 0.000
44485 AEROCUBE 10A (JIMSAT) [+] 5.285 2020 Dec 03 16:03:43.834 2020 Dec 04 17:39:50.523 2020 Dec 05 19:59:54.995
13378 COSMOS 1391 [?] 3.541 1.675E-03 0.021 0.082 6.428
04794 DELTA 1 R/B(CEP 1) [-] 3.696 2020 Dec 02 02:39:45.926 2020 Dec 02 02:39:46.704 2020 Dec 02 02:39:47.482
45058 STARLINK-1162 [+] 2.908 1.120E-03 0.020 0.046 13.652
31663 FENGYUN 1C DEB [-] 2.705 2020 Dec 01 04:34:00.456 2020 Dec 01 04:34:00.822 2020 Dec 01 04:34:01.188
06079 METEOR 1-12 [?] 3.158 1.051E-03 0.061 0.191 10.630
36987 FENGYUN 1C DEB [-] 4.784 2020 Dec 02 16:42:30.148 2020 Dec 02 16:42:30.618 2020 Dec 02 16:42:31.088

10 records found

Data Fields:
  • Action: The Analysis button links to a page which provides a capability to build an interactive 3-D STK/CAT (Conjunction Analysis Tools) scenario detailing the conjunction.
  • NORAD Catalog Number: NORAD Catalog Numbers of the two conjuncting objects.
  • Name: Common names of the two conjuncting objects. Operational status of each object is shown in brackets, using the standard CelesTrak SATCAT codes.
  • Days Since Epoch: The number of days from the epoch of the NORAD two-line element set or operator ephemerides (green) used to produce the prediction until the time of closest approach for the conjunction.
  • Max Probability: Given fixed spherical object radii and relative distance at the time of closest approach (TCA), the projected covariance ellipse is sized and oriented to produce the maximum probability. For these reports the ratio of major-to-minor axes of the projected covariance ellipse is set using radial, in-track, and cross-track values of 100 m, 300 m, 100 m, respectively. If the combined object radius is greater than the relative distance, the maximum probability will be one; such occurrences are not addressed here.
  • Dilution Threshold (km): The standard deviation that produces the maximum probability defines the threshold of dilution. A smaller or larger standard deviation will produce a smaller probability. In the case of computing true probability with a smaller standard deviation, the data is of sufficient quality to associate low probability with low risk. For a larger standard deviation, this is not the case and the resulting true probability calculation becomes "diluted." If operating in this dilution region, the recommendation is to obtain better data and reassess the encounter. If time or resources do not permit, then the maximum probability should be used in place of the true probability.
  • Min Range (km): The distance between the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.
  • Start (UTC): Time when the two conjuncting objects come within the computation threshold from each other.
  • TCA (UTC): Time of closest approach.
  • Stop (UTC): Time when the two conjuncting objects move beyond the computation threshold from each other.
  • Relative Velocity (km/sec): Relative velocity of the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.