SOCRATES

Search Results


Search parameters:

  • Name(s): Top 10 by Maximum Probability
  • Order by Maximum Probability
  • Return first 10 items


Data current as of 2020 Sep 20 00:06 UTC

Computation Interval: Start = 2020 Sep 20 00:00:00.000, Stop = 2020 Sep 27 00:00:00.000
Computation Threshold: 5.0 km
Considering: 5,740 Primaries, 19,344 Secondaries (37,913 Conjunctions)

See notes at bottom of page for data field descriptions

Re-sort results by Minimum Range, Time In.

Action NORAD
Catalog
Number
Name Days
Since
Epoch
Max
Probability
Dilution
Threshold
(km)
Min
Range
(km)
Relative
Velocity
(km/sec)
Start
(UTC)
TCA
(UTC)
Stop
(UTC)
26824 INTELSAT 901 (IS-901) [+] 0.845 1.000E+00 0.000 0.000 0.000
44625 MEV-1 [+] 0.845 2020 Sep 20 00:00:00.000 2020 Sep 20 00:00:00.000 2020 Sep 27 00:00:00.000
25344 IRIDIUM 73 [-] 4.011 1.581E-02 0.020 0.028 14.964
35262 ERS 1 DEB [-] 4.001 2020 Sep 23 12:13:34.043 2020 Sep 23 12:13:34.377 2020 Sep 23 12:13:34.711
43558 LEMUR-2-VU [+] 6.084 4.154E-03 0.009 0.028 11.262
32290 CZ-4C R/B [-] 6.058 2020 Sep 25 18:57:13.679 2020 Sep 25 18:57:14.123 2020 Sep 25 18:57:14.567
36798 ALSAT 2A [+] 4.520 2.659E-03 0.016 0.024 15.013
14222 SCOUT G-1 DEB [-] 4.806 2020 Sep 24 06:13:13.169 2020 Sep 24 06:13:13.502 2020 Sep 24 06:13:13.835
12456 METEOR 2-7 [?] 6.084 1.863E-03 0.053 0.123 13.205
37849 SUOMI NPP [+] 6.161 2020 Sep 25 16:09:55.533 2020 Sep 25 16:09:55.912 2020 Sep 25 16:09:56.290
15944 COSMOS 1674 [?] 5.382 1.805E-03 0.018 0.032 14.724
41843 PINA 2A [+] 4.565 2020 Sep 24 11:38:29.191 2020 Sep 24 11:38:29.530 2020 Sep 24 11:38:29.870
26080 PICOSAT 1 & 2 [TETHERED] [?] 3.847 1.448E-03 0.105 0.436 3.403
33905 COSMOS 2251 DEB [-] 4.516 2020 Sep 23 15:33:07.007 2020 Sep 23 15:33:08.471 2020 Sep 23 15:33:09.934
06828 COSMOS 586 [?] 3.274 1.275E-03 0.023 0.071 10.936
16207 COSMOS 1375 DEB [-] 3.316 2020 Sep 22 20:23:15.228 2020 Sep 22 20:23:15.685 2020 Sep 22 20:23:16.142
27424 AQUA [+] 4.309 1.239E-03 0.080 0.291 8.225
26339 CZ-4B DEB [-] 4.384 2020 Sep 23 21:13:12.979 2020 Sep 23 21:13:13.585 2020 Sep 23 21:13:14.192
24870 IRIDIUM 17 [-] 3.670 1.155E-03 0.055 0.140 12.645
39644 COSMOS 1867 COOLANT [-] 4.106 2020 Sep 22 23:38:33.771 2020 Sep 22 23:38:34.166 2020 Sep 22 23:38:34.561

10 records found

Data Fields:
  • Action: The Analysis button links to a page which provides a capability to build an interactive 3-D STK/CAT (Conjunction Analysis Tools) scenario detailing the conjunction.
  • NORAD Catalog Number: NORAD Catalog Numbers of the two conjuncting objects.
  • Name: Common names of the two conjuncting objects. Operational status of each object is shown in brackets, using the standard CelesTrak SATCAT codes.
  • Days Since Epoch: The number of days from the epoch of the NORAD two-line element set or operator ephemerides (green) used to produce the prediction until the time of closest approach for the conjunction.
  • Max Probability: Given fixed spherical object radii and relative distance at the time of closest approach (TCA), the projected covariance ellipse is sized and oriented to produce the maximum probability. For these reports the ratio of major-to-minor axes of the projected covariance ellipse is set using radial, in-track, and cross-track values of 100 m, 300 m, 100 m, respectively. If the combined object radius is greater than the relative distance, the maximum probability will be one; such occurrences are not addressed here.
  • Dilution Threshold (km): The standard deviation that produces the maximum probability defines the threshold of dilution. A smaller or larger standard deviation will produce a smaller probability. In the case of computing true probability with a smaller standard deviation, the data is of sufficient quality to associate low probability with low risk. For a larger standard deviation, this is not the case and the resulting true probability calculation becomes "diluted." If operating in this dilution region, the recommendation is to obtain better data and reassess the encounter. If time or resources do not permit, then the maximum probability should be used in place of the true probability.
  • Min Range (km): The distance between the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.
  • Start (UTC): Time when the two conjuncting objects come within the computation threshold from each other.
  • TCA (UTC): Time of closest approach.
  • Stop (UTC): Time when the two conjuncting objects move beyond the computation threshold from each other.
  • Relative Velocity (km/sec): Relative velocity of the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.

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Dr. T.S. Kelso [TS.Kelso@celestrak.com]
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Last updated: 2020 Sep 20 03:28:04 UTC
Accessed 1 times since 2000 December 16
Current system time: 2020 Sep 20 11:10:01 UTC