SOCRATES

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CelesTrak

Search parameters:

  • Name(s): Top 10 by Maximum Probability
  • Order by Maximum Probability
  • Return first 10 items


Data current as of 2021 Sep 27 00:12 UTC

Computation Interval: Start = 2021 Sep 27 00:00:00.000, Stop = 2021 Oct 04 00:00:00.000
Computation Threshold: 5.0 km
Considering: 7,485 Primaries, 21,555 Secondaries (59,272 Conjunctions)

See notes at bottom of page for data field descriptions

Re-sort results by Minimum Range, Time In.

Action NORAD
Catalog
Number
Name Days
Since
Epoch
Max
Probability
Dilution
Threshold
(km)
Min
Range
(km)
Relative
Velocity
(km/sec)
Start
(UTC)
TCA
(UTC)
Stop
(UTC)
48803 TIANZHOU-2 [+] 0.506 1.000E+00 0.000 0.000 0.000
49222 TIANZHOU-3 [+] 0.506 2021 Sep 27 00:00:00.000 2021 Sep 27 00:00:00.000 2021 Oct 04 00:00:00.000
45407 STARLINK-1275 [+] 5.393 2.172E-02 0.003 0.014 4.643
48445 STARLINK-2634 [+] 5.322 2021 Oct 01 14:50:18.407 2021 Oct 01 14:50:19.484 2021 Oct 01 14:50:20.561
25115 ORBCOMM FM12 [+] 6.924 1.516E-02 0.010 0.041 0.050
25116 ORBCOMM FM09 [+] 6.924 2021 Oct 03 11:35:52.291 2021 Oct 03 11:37:33.156 2021 Oct 03 11:39:14.023
45419 STARLINK-1308 [+] 3.403 1.186E-02 0.005 0.019 4.644
47756 STARLINK-2174 [+] 3.331 2021 Sep 29 16:35:34.071 2021 Sep 29 16:35:35.148 2021 Sep 29 16:35:36.225
25115 ORBCOMM FM12 [+] 6.854 1.125E-02 0.011 0.048 0.050
25116 ORBCOMM FM09 [+] 6.854 2021 Oct 03 09:55:55.072 2021 Oct 03 09:57:35.932 2021 Oct 03 09:59:16.793
46588 STARLINK-1746 [+] 6.921 8.549E-03 0.006 0.021 6.963
47766 STARLINK-2184 [+] 6.713 2021 Oct 03 03:37:52.949 2021 Oct 03 03:37:53.667 2021 Oct 03 03:37:54.385
23317 OKEAN-4 [?] 6.971 7.451E-03 0.024 0.065 12.227
25693 UOSAT 12 (UO-36) [-] 7.009 2021 Oct 03 13:23:49.070 2021 Oct 03 13:23:49.479 2021 Oct 03 13:23:49.888
26113 IMAGE [P] 7.757 6.520E-03 1.597 3.129 16.251
39714 SL-16 DEB [-] 7.611 2021 Oct 02 09:13:11.030 2021 Oct 02 09:13:11.270 2021 Oct 02 09:13:11.510
25489 STEX [-] 1.327 5.987E-03 0.078 0.293 7.311
31955 FENGYUN 1C DEB [-] 1.266 2021 Sep 27 17:37:27.606 2021 Sep 27 17:37:28.289 2021 Sep 27 17:37:28.971
46160 STARLINK-1598 [+] 3.995 5.635E-03 0.007 0.027 4.646
47819 STARLINK-2402 [+] 3.536 2021 Sep 30 01:12:31.006 2021 Sep 30 01:12:32.082 2021 Sep 30 01:12:33.159

10 records found

Data Fields:
  • Action: The TLE Data button links to a page which provides the TLEs used to generate the associated prediction.
  • NORAD Catalog Number: NORAD Catalog Numbers of the two conjuncting objects.
  • Name: Common names of the two conjuncting objects. Operational status of each object is shown in brackets, using the standard CelesTrak SATCAT codes.
  • Days Since Epoch: The number of days from the epoch of the NORAD two-line element set or operator ephemerides (green) used to produce the prediction until the time of closest approach for the conjunction.
  • Max Probability: Given fixed spherical object radii and relative distance at the time of closest approach (TCA), the projected covariance ellipse is sized and oriented to produce the maximum probability. For these reports the ratio of major-to-minor axes of the projected covariance ellipse is set using radial, in-track, and cross-track values of 100 m, 300 m, 100 m, respectively. If the combined object radius is greater than the relative distance, the maximum probability will be one; such occurrences are not addressed here.
  • Dilution Threshold (km): The standard deviation that produces the maximum probability defines the threshold of dilution. A smaller or larger standard deviation will produce a smaller probability. In the case of computing true probability with a smaller standard deviation, the data is of sufficient quality to associate low probability with low risk. For a larger standard deviation, this is not the case and the resulting true probability calculation becomes "diluted." If operating in this dilution region, the recommendation is to obtain better data and reassess the encounter. If time or resources do not permit, then the maximum probability should be used in place of the true probability.
  • Min Range (km): The distance between the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.
  • Start (UTC): Time when the two conjuncting objects come within the computation threshold from each other.
  • TCA (UTC): Time of closest approach.
  • Stop (UTC): Time when the two conjuncting objects move beyond the computation threshold from each other.
  • Relative Velocity (km/sec): Relative velocity of the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.