SOCRATES

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Search parameters:

  • Name(s): Top 10 by Maximum Probability
  • Order by Maximum Probability
  • Return first 10 items


Data current as of 2017 Aug 21 16:05 UTC

Computation Interval: Start = 2017 Aug 21 12:00:00.000, Stop = 2017 Aug 28 12:00:00.000
Computation Threshold: 5.0 km
Considering: 4,069 Primaries, 16,630 Secondaries (22,688 Conjunctions)

See notes at bottom of page for data field descriptions

Bookmark this search (Top 10 by Maximum Probability)

Sort results by Minimum Range, Time In.

 
Action NORAD
Catalog
Number
Name Days
Since
Epoch
Max
Probability
Dilution
Threshold
(km)
Min
Range
(km)
Relative
Velocity
(km/sec)
Start
(UTC)
TCA
(UTC)
Stop
(UTC)
07714 METEOR 1-21 [?] 2.931 1.057E-01 0.008 0.013 14.871
41654 NOAA 16 DEB [-] 2.215 2017 Aug 23 04:22:46.704 2017 Aug 23 04:22:47.040 2017 Aug 23 04:22:47.376
24842 IRIDIUM 911 [-] 7.322 7.855E-03 0.019 0.060 10.627
34106 IRIDIUM 33 DEB [-] 6.872 2017 Aug 27 15:01:34.181 2017 Aug 27 15:01:34.651 2017 Aug 27 15:01:35.122
24871 IRIDIUM 920 [-] 5.275 2.524E-03 0.029 0.122 2.024
18290 ARIANE 1 DEB [-] 5.606 2017 Aug 25 19:24:37.139 2017 Aug 25 19:24:39.609 2017 Aug 25 19:24:42.079
12456 METEOR 2-7 [?] 5.441 1.843E-03 0.041 0.162 5.513
30978 FENGYUN 1C DEB [-] 7.642 2017 Aug 26 06:50:33.405 2017 Aug 26 06:50:34.311 2017 Aug 26 06:50:35.218
07490 METEOR 1-19 [?] 0.478 1.683E-03 0.064 0.114 14.235
42568 DELTA 1 DEB [-] 3.936 2017 Aug 21 01:35:36.411 2017 Aug 21 01:35:36.762 2017 Aug 21 01:35:37.114
Action NORAD
Catalog
Number
Name Days
Since
Epoch
Max
Probability
Dilution
Threshold
(km)
Min
Range
(km)
Relative
Velocity
(km/sec)
Start
(UTC)
TCA
(UTC)
Stop
(UTC)
11605 METEOR 2-5 [?] 3.804 1.630E-03 0.073 0.103 14.828
41232 NOAA 16 DEB [-] 4.069 2017 Aug 24 05:29:49.424 2017 Aug 24 05:29:49.761 2017 Aug 24 05:29:50.098
25275 IRIDIUM 59 [+] 4.628 1.494E-03 0.064 0.093 15.038
37453 FENGYUN 1C DEB [-] 8.831 2017 Aug 25 04:48:10.632 2017 Aug 25 04:48:10.964 2017 Aug 25 04:48:11.296
21574 ERS-1 [-] 0.645 1.277E-03 0.069 0.256 7.789
37414 FENGYUN 1C DEB [-] 1.160 2017 Aug 21 01:57:42.747 2017 Aug 21 01:57:43.388 2017 Aug 21 01:57:44.029
17369 COSMOS 1818 [?] 0.799 8.571E-04 0.186 0.723 6.233
25986 ORBCOMM FM34 [+] 1.167 2017 Aug 22 00:41:50.648 2017 Aug 22 00:41:51.442 2017 Aug 22 00:41:52.236
25980 ORBCOMM FM30 [+] 0.319 8.455E-04 0.030 0.120 5.566
38028 IRIDIUM 33 DEB [-] 1.706 2017 Aug 21 10:37:20.943 2017 Aug 21 10:37:21.841 2017 Aug 21 10:37:22.739

10 records found

Data Fields:
  • Action: The Analysis button links to a page which provides a capability to build an interactive 3-D STK/CAT (Conjunction Analysis Tools) scenario detailing the conjunction.
  • NORAD Catalog Number: NORAD Catalog Numbers of the two conjuncting objects.
  • Name: Common names of the two conjuncting objects. Operational status of each object is shown in brackets, using the standard CelesTrak SATCAT codes.
  • Days Since Epoch: The number of days from the epoch of the NORAD two-line element set or operator ephemerides (green) used to produce the prediction until the time of closest approach for the conjunction.
  • Max Probability: Given fixed spherical object radii and relative distance at the time of closest approach (TCA), the projected covariance ellipse is sized and oriented to produce the maximum probability. For these reports the ratio of major-to-minor axes of the projected covariance ellipse is set using radial, in-track, and cross-track values of 100 m, 300 m, 100 m, respectively. If the combined object radius is greater than the relative distance, the maximum probability will be one; such occurrences are not addressed here.
  • Dilution Threshold (km): The standard deviation that produces the maximum probability defines the threshold of dilution. A smaller or larger standard deviation will produce a smaller probability. In the case of computing true probability with a smaller standard deviation, the data is of sufficient quality to associate low probability with low risk. For a larger standard deviation, this is not the case and the resulting true probability calculation becomes "diluted." If operating in this dilution region, the recommendation is to obtain better data and reassess the encounter. If time or resources do not permit, then the maximum probability should be used in place of the true probability.
  • Min Range (km): The distance between the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.
  • Start (UTC): Time when the two conjuncting objects come within the computation threshold from each other.
  • TCA (UTC): Time of closest approach.
  • Stop (UTC): Time when the two conjuncting objects move beyond the computation threshold from each other.
  • Relative Velocity (km/sec): Relative velocity of the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.

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Dr. T.S. Kelso [TS.Kelso@celestrak.com]
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Format last updated: 2014 May 16
Current system time: 2017 August 22 07:04:27 UTC