SOCRATES

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Search parameters:

  • Name(s): Top 10 by Maximum Probability
  • Order by Maximum Probability
  • Return first 10 items


Data current as of 2017 Dec 12 00:05 UTC

Computation Interval: Start = 2017 Dec 12 00:00:00.000, Stop = 2017 Dec 19 00:00:00.000
Computation Threshold: 5.0 km
Considering: 4,141 Primaries, 16,756 Secondaries (23,422 Conjunctions)

See notes at bottom of page for data field descriptions

Bookmark this search (Top 10 by Maximum Probability)

Sort results by Minimum Range, Time In.

 
Action NORAD
Catalog
Number
Name Days
Since
Epoch
Max
Probability
Dilution
Threshold
(km)
Min
Range
(km)
Relative
Velocity
(km/sec)
Start
(UTC)
TCA
(UTC)
Stop
(UTC)
05557 OPS 4311 (DMSP 5B F1) [-] 2.190 1.563E-02 0.005 0.015 10.105
31311 FENGYUN 1C DEB [-] 2.048 2017 Dec 13 15:16:39.655 2017 Dec 13 15:16:40.150 2017 Dec 13 15:16:40.645
23560 ERS-2 [-] 1.529 5.820E-03 0.031 0.124 5.700
42026 FLOCK 3P-80 [+] 1.659 2017 Dec 13 03:00:32.899 2017 Dec 13 03:00:33.776 2017 Dec 13 03:00:34.653
14064 COSMOS 1461 [?] 3.520 3.964E-03 0.127 0.198 14.912
30826 FENGYUN 1C DEB [-] 4.296 2017 Dec 15 07:51:57.718 2017 Dec 15 07:51:58.053 2017 Dec 15 07:51:58.388
24871 IRIDIUM 920 [-] 3.561 3.409E-03 0.036 0.074 13.847
39731 KAZEOSAT 1 [+] 3.210 2017 Dec 15 01:17:04.764 2017 Dec 15 01:17:05.125 2017 Dec 15 01:17:05.486
24870 IRIDIUM 17 [-] 1.375 1.896E-03 0.042 0.111 12.403
40336 CBERS 4 [+] 0.958 2017 Dec 12 18:33:33.963 2017 Dec 12 18:33:34.366 2017 Dec 12 18:33:34.769
Action NORAD
Catalog
Number
Name Days
Since
Epoch
Max
Probability
Dilution
Threshold
(km)
Min
Range
(km)
Relative
Velocity
(km/sec)
Start
(UTC)
TCA
(UTC)
Stop
(UTC)
25432 IRIDIUM 76 [+] 3.256 1.531E-03 0.054 0.119 13.544
26375 PEGASUS R/B [-] 3.139 2017 Dec 14 17:48:01.158 2017 Dec 14 17:48:01.527 2017 Dec 14 17:48:01.896
20510 OKEAN-2 [?] 6.228 1.425E-03 0.048 0.199 2.988
35906 COSMOS 2251 DEB [-] 6.551 2017 Dec 17 21:30:27.080 2017 Dec 17 21:30:28.752 2017 Dec 17 21:30:30.424
41922 IRIDIUM 104 [+] 1.895 9.139E-04 0.025 0.046 14.267
35038 COSMOS 2251 DEB [-] 2.129 2017 Dec 13 07:29:17.924 2017 Dec 13 07:29:18.275 2017 Dec 13 07:29:18.625
40378 FIREBIRD 4 [+] 5.787 8.063E-04 0.023 0.057 12.938
31298 FENGYUN 1C DEB [-] 6.207 2017 Dec 17 14:50:14.922 2017 Dec 17 14:50:15.309 2017 Dec 17 14:50:15.695
17066 COSMOS 1791 [?] 5.728 7.913E-04 0.081 0.123 14.585
07769 SL-8 R/B [-] 6.049 2017 Dec 17 07:04:48.880 2017 Dec 17 07:04:49.223 2017 Dec 17 07:04:49.566

10 records found

Data Fields:
  • Action: The Analysis button links to a page which provides a capability to build an interactive 3-D STK/CAT (Conjunction Analysis Tools) scenario detailing the conjunction.
  • NORAD Catalog Number: NORAD Catalog Numbers of the two conjuncting objects.
  • Name: Common names of the two conjuncting objects. Operational status of each object is shown in brackets, using the standard CelesTrak SATCAT codes.
  • Days Since Epoch: The number of days from the epoch of the NORAD two-line element set or operator ephemerides (green) used to produce the prediction until the time of closest approach for the conjunction.
  • Max Probability: Given fixed spherical object radii and relative distance at the time of closest approach (TCA), the projected covariance ellipse is sized and oriented to produce the maximum probability. For these reports the ratio of major-to-minor axes of the projected covariance ellipse is set using radial, in-track, and cross-track values of 100 m, 300 m, 100 m, respectively. If the combined object radius is greater than the relative distance, the maximum probability will be one; such occurrences are not addressed here.
  • Dilution Threshold (km): The standard deviation that produces the maximum probability defines the threshold of dilution. A smaller or larger standard deviation will produce a smaller probability. In the case of computing true probability with a smaller standard deviation, the data is of sufficient quality to associate low probability with low risk. For a larger standard deviation, this is not the case and the resulting true probability calculation becomes "diluted." If operating in this dilution region, the recommendation is to obtain better data and reassess the encounter. If time or resources do not permit, then the maximum probability should be used in place of the true probability.
  • Min Range (km): The distance between the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.
  • Start (UTC): Time when the two conjuncting objects come within the computation threshold from each other.
  • TCA (UTC): Time of closest approach.
  • Stop (UTC): Time when the two conjuncting objects move beyond the computation threshold from each other.
  • Relative Velocity (km/sec): Relative velocity of the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.

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Dr. T.S. Kelso [TS.Kelso@celestrak.com]
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Format last updated: 2014 May 16
Current system time: 2017 December 12 02:24:52 UTC