SOCRATES

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Search parameters:

  • Name(s): Top 10 by Maximum Probability
  • Order by Maximum Probability
  • Return first 10 items


Data current as of 2013 May 21 12:30 UTC

Computation Interval: Start = 2013 May 21 12:00:00.000, Stop = 2013 May 28 12:00:00.000
Computation Threshold: 5.0 km
Considering: 3,262 Primaries, 13,923 Secondaries (15,503 Conjunctions)

See notes at bottom of page for data field descriptions

Bookmark this search (Top 10 by Maximum Probability)

Sort results by Minimum Range, Time In.

 
Action NORAD
Catalog
Number
Name Days
Since
Epoch
Max
Probability
Dilution
Threshold
(km)
Min
Range
(km)
Relative
Velocity
(km/sec)
Start
(UTC)
TCA
(UTC)
Stop
(UTC)
06173 TRIAD 1 [?] 3.144 1.066E-01 0.004 0.017 14.969
08685 DELTA 1 DEB [-] 3.724 2013 May 23 14:02:11.327 2013 May 23 14:02:11.661 2013 May 23 14:02:11.995
05721 COSMOS 469 [?] 6.135 1.370E-02 0.018 0.046 7.438
30403 FENGYUN 1C DEB [-] 7.841 2013 May 26 16:26:04.171 2013 May 26 16:26:04.843 2013 May 26 16:26:05.515
06822 OPS 8314 (2) [?] 3.323 4.530E-03 0.007 0.025 12.258
06849 COSMOS 592 [?] 2.480 2013 May 22 15:47:11.020 2013 May 22 15:47:11.427 2013 May 22 15:47:11.835
08473 COSMOS 785 [?] 5.248 4.383E-03 0.027 0.098 12.190
12748 COSMOS 1275 DEB [-] 5.206 2013 May 26 02:31:19.284 2013 May 26 02:31:19.694 2013 May 26 02:31:20.104
19038 COSMOS 1937 [?] 7.206 3.038E-03 0.014 0.057 14.276
35287 COSMOS 2251 DEB [-] 6.480 2013 May 27 05:17:26.944 2013 May 27 05:17:27.294 2013 May 27 05:17:27.644
Action NORAD
Catalog
Number
Name Days
Since
Epoch
Max
Probability
Dilution
Threshold
(km)
Min
Range
(km)
Relative
Velocity
(km/sec)
Start
(UTC)
TCA
(UTC)
Stop
(UTC)
27386 ENVISAT [-] 2.051 2.837E-03 0.074 0.314 14.904
34638 COSMOS 2251 DEB [-] 2.418 2013 May 23 03:34:30.046 2013 May 23 03:34:30.381 2013 May 23 03:34:30.716
24729 GONETS-D1 5 [+] 7.241 2.688E-03 0.034 0.127 12.459
26084 GLOBALSTAR M064 [+] 8.160 2013 May 28 08:04:49.307 2013 May 28 08:04:49.709 2013 May 28 08:04:50.110
16681 COSMOS 1741 [?] 4.316 2.550E-03 0.017 0.055 10.551
37537 COSMOS 2251 DEB [-] 15.307 2013 May 24 19:24:23.434 2013 May 24 19:24:23.907 2013 May 24 19:24:24.381
08860 P 76-5 [?] 5.026 1.997E-03 0.092 0.373 14.011
29852 FENGYUN 1C DEB [-] 5.382 2013 May 26 04:50:12.891 2013 May 26 04:50:13.246 2013 May 26 04:50:13.602
03669 ISIS 1 [?] 1.867 1.887E-03 0.223 0.923 14.895
29992 FENGYUN 1C DEB [-] 2.557 2013 May 22 14:22:38.661 2013 May 22 14:22:38.991 2013 May 22 14:22:39.321

10 records found

Data Fields:
  • Action: The Analysis button links to a page which provides a capability to build an interactive 3-D STK/CAT (Conjunction Analysis Tools) scenario detailing the conjunction.
  • NORAD Catalog Number: NORAD Catalog Numbers of the two conjuncting objects.
  • Name: Common names of the two conjuncting objects. Operational status of each object is shown in brackets, using the standard CelesTrak SATCAT codes.
  • Days Since Epoch: The number of days from the epoch of the NORAD two-line element set or operator ephemerides (green) used to produce the prediction until the time of closest approach for the conjunction.
  • Max Probability: Given fixed spherical object radii and relative distance at the time of closest approach (TCA), the projected covariance ellipse is sized and oriented to produce the maximum probability. For these reports the ratio of major-to-minor axes of the projected covariance ellipse is set using radial, in-track, and cross-track values of 100 m, 300 m, 100 m, respectively. If the combined object radius is greater than the relative distance, the maximum probability will be one; such occurrences are not addressed here.
  • Dilution Threshold (km): The standard deviation that produces the maximum probability defines the threshold of dilution. A smaller or larger standard deviation will produce a smaller probability. In the case of computing true probability with a smaller standard deviation, the data is of sufficient quality to associate low probability with low risk. For a larger standard deviation, this is not the case and the resulting true probability calculation becomes "diluted." If operating in this dilution region, the recommendation is to obtain better data and reassess the encounter. If time or resources do not permit, then the maximum probability should be used in place of the true probability.
  • Min Range (km): The distance between the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.
  • Start (UTC): Time when the two conjuncting objects come within the computation threshold from each other.
  • TCA (UTC): Time of closest approach.
  • Stop (UTC): Time when the two conjuncting objects move beyond the computation threshold from each other.
  • Relative Velocity (km/sec): Relative velocity of the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.

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Dr. T.S. Kelso [TS.Kelso@celestrak.com]
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Format last updated: 2009 May 26
Current system time: 2013 May 21 22:58:12 UTC