SOCRATES

Search Results


Search parameters:

  • Name(s): Top 10 by Maximum Probability
  • Order by Maximum Probability
  • Return first 10 items


Data current as of 2018 Apr 25 00:09 UTC

Computation Interval: Start = 2018 Apr 25 00:00:00.000, Stop = 2018 May 02 00:00:00.000
Computation Threshold: 5.0 km
Considering: 4,234 Primaries, 16,970 Secondaries (23,534 Conjunctions)

See notes at bottom of page for data field descriptions

Bookmark this search (Top 10 by Maximum Probability)

Sort results by Minimum Range, Time In.

 
Action NORAD
Catalog
Number
Name Days
Since
Epoch
Max
Probability
Dilution
Threshold
(km)
Min
Range
(km)
Relative
Velocity
(km/sec)
Start
(UTC)
TCA
(UTC)
Stop
(UTC)
12783 COSMOS 1299 [?] 5.592 5.808E-03 0.036 0.055 14.648
31246 FENGYUN 1C DEB [-] 6.251 2018 Apr 30 04:46:09.159 2018 Apr 30 04:46:09.500 2018 Apr 30 04:46:09.842
18187 COSMOS 1867 [?] 3.409 3.271E-03 0.096 0.317 9.883
33688 FENGYUN 1C DEB [-] 3.161 2018 Apr 27 18:06:18.094 2018 Apr 27 18:06:18.599 2018 Apr 27 18:06:19.103
23323 IRS-P2 [-] 3.600 2.073E-03 0.033 0.119 8.361
31214 FENGYUN 1C DEB [-] 3.436 2018 Apr 28 00:48:25.767 2018 Apr 28 00:48:26.365 2018 Apr 28 00:48:26.963
27640 CORIOLIS [+] 4.544 1.614E-03 0.013 0.050 6.113
31341 FENGYUN 1C DEB [-] 5.077 2018 Apr 29 04:12:51.433 2018 Apr 29 04:12:52.251 2018 Apr 29 04:12:53.069
06154 COSMOS 516 [?] 4.669 1.286E-03 0.054 0.169 10.387
25412 SL-16 DEB [-] 4.998 2018 Apr 29 06:19:05.074 2018 Apr 29 06:19:05.555 2018 Apr 29 06:19:06.036
Action NORAD
Catalog
Number
Name Days
Since
Epoch
Max
Probability
Dilution
Threshold
(km)
Min
Range
(km)
Relative
Velocity
(km/sec)
Start
(UTC)
TCA
(UTC)
Stop
(UTC)
07574 METEOR 1-20 [?] 5.352 1.204E-03 0.082 0.124 14.702
36331 METEOR 2-8 DEB [-] 6.670 2018 Apr 30 02:44:51.111 2018 Apr 30 02:44:51.451 2018 Apr 30 02:44:51.791
25544 ISS (ZARYA) [+] 1.186 1.081E-03 0.154 0.378 13.278
39068 STSAT-2C [+] 1.207 2018 Apr 26 02:35:04.682 2018 Apr 26 02:35:05.058 2018 Apr 26 02:35:05.433
25531 IRIDIUM 83 [+] 2.776 8.880E-04 0.080 0.254 10.421
11112 SL-8 R/B [-] 2.627 2018 Apr 27 04:34:14.388 2018 Apr 27 04:34:14.867 2018 Apr 27 04:34:15.346
21576 ORBCOMM-X [-] 6.883 8.764E-04 0.083 0.124 14.844
11574 SL-8 R/B [-] 6.689 2018 May 01 13:01:25.717 2018 May 01 13:01:26.054 2018 May 01 13:01:26.391
41988 FLOCK 3P-34 [+] 6.911 8.754E-04 0.060 0.229 7.226
26350 CZ-4B DEB [-] 8.150 2018 May 01 16:03:39.980 2018 May 01 16:03:40.671 2018 May 01 16:03:41.362

10 records found

Data Fields:
  • Action: The Analysis button links to a page which provides a capability to build an interactive 3-D STK/CAT (Conjunction Analysis Tools) scenario detailing the conjunction.
  • NORAD Catalog Number: NORAD Catalog Numbers of the two conjuncting objects.
  • Name: Common names of the two conjuncting objects. Operational status of each object is shown in brackets, using the standard CelesTrak SATCAT codes.
  • Days Since Epoch: The number of days from the epoch of the NORAD two-line element set or operator ephemerides (green) used to produce the prediction until the time of closest approach for the conjunction.
  • Max Probability: Given fixed spherical object radii and relative distance at the time of closest approach (TCA), the projected covariance ellipse is sized and oriented to produce the maximum probability. For these reports the ratio of major-to-minor axes of the projected covariance ellipse is set using radial, in-track, and cross-track values of 100 m, 300 m, 100 m, respectively. If the combined object radius is greater than the relative distance, the maximum probability will be one; such occurrences are not addressed here.
  • Dilution Threshold (km): The standard deviation that produces the maximum probability defines the threshold of dilution. A smaller or larger standard deviation will produce a smaller probability. In the case of computing true probability with a smaller standard deviation, the data is of sufficient quality to associate low probability with low risk. For a larger standard deviation, this is not the case and the resulting true probability calculation becomes "diluted." If operating in this dilution region, the recommendation is to obtain better data and reassess the encounter. If time or resources do not permit, then the maximum probability should be used in place of the true probability.
  • Min Range (km): The distance between the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.
  • Start (UTC): Time when the two conjuncting objects come within the computation threshold from each other.
  • TCA (UTC): Time of closest approach.
  • Stop (UTC): Time when the two conjuncting objects move beyond the computation threshold from each other.
  • Relative Velocity (km/sec): Relative velocity of the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.

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Dr. T.S. Kelso [TS.Kelso@celestrak.com]
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Format last updated: 2014 May 16
Current system time: 2018 April 25 04:37:54 UTC