SOCRATES

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Search parameters:

  • Name(s): Top 10 by Maximum Probability
  • Order by Maximum Probability
  • Return first 10 items


Data current as of 2018 Feb 21 08:06 UTC

Computation Interval: Start = 2018 Feb 21 00:00:00.000, Stop = 2018 Feb 28 00:00:00.000
Computation Threshold: 5.0 km
Considering: 4,227 Primaries, 16,767 Secondaries (24,012 Conjunctions)

See notes at bottom of page for data field descriptions

Bookmark this search (Top 10 by Maximum Probability)

Sort results by Minimum Range, Time In.

 
Action NORAD
Catalog
Number
Name Days
Since
Epoch
Max
Probability
Dilution
Threshold
(km)
Min
Range
(km)
Relative
Velocity
(km/sec)
Start
(UTC)
TCA
(UTC)
Stop
(UTC)
43063 SOYUZ-MS 07 [+] 0.371 1.000E+00 0.000 0.000 0.000
43211 PROGRESS-MS 08 [+] 0.371 2018 Feb 21 00:00:00.000 2018 Feb 21 00:00:00.000 2018 Feb 28 00:00:00.000
42971 PROGRESS-MS 07 [+] 0.371 1.000E+00 0.000 0.000 0.000
43211 PROGRESS-MS 08 [+] 0.371 2018 Feb 21 00:00:00.000 2018 Feb 21 00:00:00.000 2018 Feb 28 00:00:00.000
42937 SOYUZ-MS 06 [+] 0.371 1.000E+00 0.000 0.000 0.000
43211 PROGRESS-MS 08 [+] 0.371 2018 Feb 21 00:00:00.000 2018 Feb 21 00:00:00.000 2018 Feb 28 00:00:00.000
25173 IRIDIUM 53 [+] 3.257 1.130E-02 0.023 0.034 14.899
30207 FENGYUN 1C DEB [-] 3.244 2018 Feb 24 04:34:02.209 2018 Feb 24 04:34:02.544 2018 Feb 24 04:34:02.880
41982 FLOCK 3P-88 [+] 4.218 6.311E-03 0.006 0.026 0.001
42044 FLOCK 3P-87 [+] 4.218 2018 Feb 24 09:16:39.949 2018 Feb 25 00:28:03.963 2018 Feb 25 15:45:50.691
Action NORAD
Catalog
Number
Name Days
Since
Epoch
Max
Probability
Dilution
Threshold
(km)
Min
Range
(km)
Relative
Velocity
(km/sec)
Start
(UTC)
TCA
(UTC)
Stop
(UTC)
25170 IRIDIUM 56 [+] 0.713 6.306E-03 0.028 0.050 14.355
35331 CZ-4B DEB [-] 1.461 2018 Feb 21 15:11:58.983 2018 Feb 21 15:11:59.331 2018 Feb 21 15:11:59.680
24968 IRIDIUM 37 [P] 1.348 3.442E-03 0.048 0.082 14.668
14208 SL-3 R/B [-] 1.307 2018 Feb 22 11:45:31.896 2018 Feb 22 11:45:32.237 2018 Feb 22 11:45:32.578
18187 COSMOS 1867 [?] 3.545 3.272E-03 0.099 0.307 10.798
38028 IRIDIUM 33 DEB [-] 5.895 2018 Feb 24 11:40:05.568 2018 Feb 24 11:40:06.030 2018 Feb 24 11:40:06.492
05104 ISIS 2 [?] 1.601 3.129E-03 0.226 0.550 12.406
38043 GLOBALSTAR M092 [+] 1.316 2018 Feb 22 06:09:12.988 2018 Feb 22 06:09:13.389 2018 Feb 22 06:09:13.790
27424 AQUA [+] 0.691 2.796E-03 0.057 0.182 10.415
31481 FENGYUN 1C DEB [-] 2.542 2018 Feb 21 13:53:54.125 2018 Feb 21 13:53:54.605 2018 Feb 21 13:53:55.085

10 records found

Data Fields:
  • Action: The Analysis button links to a page which provides a capability to build an interactive 3-D STK/CAT (Conjunction Analysis Tools) scenario detailing the conjunction.
  • NORAD Catalog Number: NORAD Catalog Numbers of the two conjuncting objects.
  • Name: Common names of the two conjuncting objects. Operational status of each object is shown in brackets, using the standard CelesTrak SATCAT codes.
  • Days Since Epoch: The number of days from the epoch of the NORAD two-line element set or operator ephemerides (green) used to produce the prediction until the time of closest approach for the conjunction.
  • Max Probability: Given fixed spherical object radii and relative distance at the time of closest approach (TCA), the projected covariance ellipse is sized and oriented to produce the maximum probability. For these reports the ratio of major-to-minor axes of the projected covariance ellipse is set using radial, in-track, and cross-track values of 100 m, 300 m, 100 m, respectively. If the combined object radius is greater than the relative distance, the maximum probability will be one; such occurrences are not addressed here.
  • Dilution Threshold (km): The standard deviation that produces the maximum probability defines the threshold of dilution. A smaller or larger standard deviation will produce a smaller probability. In the case of computing true probability with a smaller standard deviation, the data is of sufficient quality to associate low probability with low risk. For a larger standard deviation, this is not the case and the resulting true probability calculation becomes "diluted." If operating in this dilution region, the recommendation is to obtain better data and reassess the encounter. If time or resources do not permit, then the maximum probability should be used in place of the true probability.
  • Min Range (km): The distance between the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.
  • Start (UTC): Time when the two conjuncting objects come within the computation threshold from each other.
  • TCA (UTC): Time of closest approach.
  • Stop (UTC): Time when the two conjuncting objects move beyond the computation threshold from each other.
  • Relative Velocity (km/sec): Relative velocity of the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.

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Dr. T.S. Kelso [TS.Kelso@celestrak.com]
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Format last updated: 2014 May 16
Current system time: 2018 February 21 11:00:30 UTC