SOCRATES

Top 10 Conjunctions
by Maximum Probability

Data current as of 2008 Jul 24 01:00 UTC

Computation Interval: Start = 2008 Jul 24 00:00:00.000, Stop = 2008 Jul 31 00:00:00.000
Computation Threshold: 5.0 km
Considering: 2,900 Primaries, 11,567 Secondaries (10,600 Conjunctions)

See notes at bottom of page for data field descriptions

 
Action NORAD
Catalog
Number		 Name Days
Since
Epoch		 Max
Probability		 Dilution
Threshold
(km)		 Min
Range
(km)		 Relative
Velocity
(km/sec)
Start
(UTC)		 TCA
(UTC)		 Stop
(UTC)
15473 COSMOS 1621 0.662 1.252E-02 0.025 0.036 10.657
25874 GLOBALSTAR M043 0.571 2008 Jul 24 09:21:34.891 2008 Jul 24 09:21:35.360 2008 Jul 24 09:21:35.829
22823 SPOT 3 3.296 2.517E-03 0.077 0.109 8.688
30486 FENGYUN 1C DEB 4.576 2008 Jul 27 03:10:52.321 2008 Jul 27 03:10:52.896 2008 Jul 27 03:10:53.472
27640 CORIOLIS 5.457 2.067E-03 0.069 0.098 14.689
25407 SL-16 R/B 5.523 2008 Jul 28 14:00:35.206 2008 Jul 28 14:00:35.547 2008 Jul 28 14:00:35.887
19921 COSMOS 2016 5.514 1.205E-03 0.049 0.070 13.507
30828 FENGYUN 1C DEB 7.438 2008 Jul 29 08:58:39.394 2008 Jul 29 08:58:39.764 2008 Jul 29 08:58:40.135
09443 COSMOS 858 2.383 4.648E-04 0.068 0.096 12.107
01739 SCOUT X-4 R/B 2.577 2008 Jul 25 22:03:07.656 2008 Jul 25 22:03:08.069 2008 Jul 25 22:03:08.482
Action NORAD
Catalog
Number		 Name Days
Since
Epoch		 Max
Probability		 Dilution
Threshold
(km)		 Min
Range
(km)		 Relative
Velocity
(km/sec)
Start
(UTC)		 TCA
(UTC)		 Stop
(UTC)
04256 OPS 7613 (P/L 1) 5.033 3.881E-04 0.044 0.062 10.497
26646 COSMOS 1579 COOLANT 7.283 2008 Jul 28 11:35:30.096 2008 Jul 28 11:35:30.572 2008 Jul 28 11:35:31.049
01271 OPS 4988 (GREB 6) 4.218 3.374E-04 0.160 0.227 2.345
05731 METEOR 1-10 4.546 2008 Jul 27 18:01:07.484 2008 Jul 27 18:01:09.614 2008 Jul 27 18:01:11.745
06059 COSMOS 494 1.378 3.132E-04 0.168 0.238 10.489
25528 IRIDIUM 86 1.165 2008 Jul 24 09:57:02.268 2008 Jul 24 09:57:02.744 2008 Jul 24 09:57:03.221
25106 IRIDIUM 47 7.062 3.059E-04 0.144 0.203 9.201
30729 FENGYUN 1C DEB 8.024 2008 Jul 30 15:17:04.093 2008 Jul 30 15:17:04.636 2008 Jul 30 15:17:05.179
07291 COSMOS 651 0.888 2.758E-04 0.173 0.245 5.749
32343 FENGYUN 1C DEB 20.203 2008 Jul 24 10:19:05.440 2008 Jul 24 10:19:06.308 2008 Jul 24 10:19:07.177
 
Data Fields:
  • Action: The Analysis button links to a page which provides a capability to build an interactive 3-D STK/CAT (Conjunction Analysis Tools) scenario detailing the conjunction.
  • NORAD Catalog Number: NORAD Catalog Numbers of the two conjuncting objects.
  • Name: Common names of the two conjuncting objects.
  • Days Since Epoch: The number of days from the epoch of the NORAD two-line element set used to produce the prediction until the time of closest approach for the conjunction.
  • Max Probability: Given fixed spherical object radii and relative distance at the time of closest approach (TCA), the projected covariance ellipse is sized and oriented to produce the maximum probability. For these reports the ratio of major-to-minor axes of the projected covariance ellipse is set to one (AR=1, no orientation is necessary). If the combined object radius is greater than the relative distance, the maximum probability will be one; such occurrences are not addressed here.
  • Dilution Threshold (km): The standard deviation that produces the maximum probability defines the threshold of dilution. A smaller or larger standard deviation will produce a smaller probability. In the case of computing true probability with a smaller standard deviation, the data is of sufficient quality to associate low probability with low risk. For a larger standard deviation, this is not the case and the resulting true probability calculation becomes "diluted." If operating in this dilution region, the recommendation is to obtain better data and reassess the encounter. If time or resources do not permit, then the maximum probability should be used in place of the true probability.
  • Min Range (km): The distance between the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.
  • Start (UTC): Time when the two conjuncting objects come within the computation threshold from each other.
  • TCA (UTC): Time of closest approach.
  • Stop (UTC): Time when the two conjuncting objects move beyond the computation threshold from each other.
  • Relative Velocity (km/sec): Relative velocity of the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.
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Dr. T.S. Kelso [TS.Kelso@celestrak.com]
Last updated: 2008 July 24 02:52:38 UTC
Accessed 39,612 times since 2000 December 16
Current system time: 2008 July 24 08:08:29 UTC