SOCRATES

Search Results


Search parameters:

  • Name(s): Top 10 by Maximum Probability
  • Order by Maximum Probability
  • Return first 10 items


Data current as of 2018 Dec 12 00:05 UTC

Computation Interval: Start = 2018 Dec 12 00:00:00.000, Stop = 2018 Dec 19 00:00:00.000
Computation Threshold: 5.0 km
Considering: 4,452 Primaries, 17,177 Secondaries (25,303 Conjunctions)

See notes at bottom of page for data field descriptions

Re-sort results by Minimum Range, Time In.

Action NORAD
Catalog
Number
Name Days
Since
Epoch
Max
Probability
Dilution
Threshold
(km)
Min
Range
(km)
Relative
Velocity
(km/sec)
Start
(UTC)
TCA
(UTC)
Stop
(UTC)
43845 CHANG'E-4 [+] 4.234 1.000E+00 0.000 0.000 0.000
43846 CZ-3B R/B [-] 4.234 2018 Dec 12 00:00:00.000 2018 Dec 12 00:00:00.000 2018 Dec 19 00:00:00.000
25489 STEX [-] 2.739 1.000E+00 0.000 1.868 13.980
36622 COSMOS 2251 DEB [-] 1.905 2018 Dec 13 16:01:30.953 2018 Dec 13 16:01:31.284 2018 Dec 13 16:01:31.616
25489 STEX [-] 3.569 1.000E+00 0.000 2.313 13.740
40796 COSMOS 2251 DEB [-] 22.490 2018 Dec 14 11:56:04.159 2018 Dec 14 11:56:04.481 2018 Dec 14 11:56:04.804
14483 COSMOS 1508 [?] 3.478 1.000E+00 0.000 1.945 6.709
25489 STEX [-] 4.093 2018 Dec 15 00:31:12.417 2018 Dec 15 00:31:13.104 2018 Dec 15 00:31:13.790
25489 STEX [-] 6.675 1.000E+00 0.000 2.697 14.837
34540 IRIDIUM 33 DEB [-] 6.527 2018 Dec 17 14:28:26.488 2018 Dec 17 14:28:26.772 2018 Dec 17 14:28:27.056
25489 STEX [-] 1.712 3.889E-01 0.992 3.476 9.219
34819 COSMOS 2251 DEB [-] 1.919 2018 Dec 12 15:22:34.470 2018 Dec 12 15:22:34.860 2018 Dec 12 15:22:35.250
25489 STEX [-] 7.206 3.691E-01 0.954 3.698 3.318
14809 SL-8 DEB [-] 7.324 2018 Dec 18 03:13:07.211 2018 Dec 18 03:13:08.225 2018 Dec 18 03:13:09.239
25489 STEX [-] 6.754 3.576E-01 1.084 3.704 8.985
30554 FENGYUN 1C DEB [-] 6.489 2018 Dec 17 16:22:08.688 2018 Dec 17 16:22:09.062 2018 Dec 17 16:22:09.436
25489 STEX [-] 7.405 2.693E-01 1.734 3.856 14.270
35616 IRIDIUM 33 DEB [-] 6.784 2018 Dec 18 08:00:23.120 2018 Dec 18 08:00:23.343 2018 Dec 18 08:00:23.566
25489 STEX [-] 3.335 2.508E-01 1.911 3.771 14.882
23345 RESURS O1 DEB [-] 3.290 2018 Dec 14 06:18:46.217 2018 Dec 14 06:18:46.438 2018 Dec 14 06:18:46.658

10 records found

Data Fields:
  • Action: The Analysis button links to a page which provides a capability to build an interactive 3-D STK/CAT (Conjunction Analysis Tools) scenario detailing the conjunction.
  • NORAD Catalog Number: NORAD Catalog Numbers of the two conjuncting objects.
  • Name: Common names of the two conjuncting objects. Operational status of each object is shown in brackets, using the standard CelesTrak SATCAT codes.
  • Days Since Epoch: The number of days from the epoch of the NORAD two-line element set or operator ephemerides (green) used to produce the prediction until the time of closest approach for the conjunction.
  • Max Probability: Given fixed spherical object radii and relative distance at the time of closest approach (TCA), the projected covariance ellipse is sized and oriented to produce the maximum probability. For these reports the ratio of major-to-minor axes of the projected covariance ellipse is set using radial, in-track, and cross-track values of 100 m, 300 m, 100 m, respectively. If the combined object radius is greater than the relative distance, the maximum probability will be one; such occurrences are not addressed here.
  • Dilution Threshold (km): The standard deviation that produces the maximum probability defines the threshold of dilution. A smaller or larger standard deviation will produce a smaller probability. In the case of computing true probability with a smaller standard deviation, the data is of sufficient quality to associate low probability with low risk. For a larger standard deviation, this is not the case and the resulting true probability calculation becomes "diluted." If operating in this dilution region, the recommendation is to obtain better data and reassess the encounter. If time or resources do not permit, then the maximum probability should be used in place of the true probability.
  • Min Range (km): The distance between the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.
  • Start (UTC): Time when the two conjuncting objects come within the computation threshold from each other.
  • TCA (UTC): Time of closest approach.
  • Stop (UTC): Time when the two conjuncting objects move beyond the computation threshold from each other.
  • Relative Velocity (km/sec): Relative velocity of the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.

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Dr. T.S. Kelso [TS.Kelso@celestrak.com]
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Last updated: 2018 Dec 12 01:32:52 UTC
Accessed 1 times since 2000 December 16
Current system time: 2018 Dec 12 01:33:20 UTC