SOCRATES

Search Results


Search parameters:

  • Name(s): Top 10 by Maximum Probability
  • Order by Maximum Probability
  • Return first 10 items


Data current as of 2018 Aug 15 08:05 UTC

Computation Interval: Start = 2018 Aug 15 00:00:00.000, Stop = 2018 Aug 22 00:00:00.000
Computation Threshold: 5.0 km
Considering: 4,276 Primaries, 17,040 Secondaries (24,401 Conjunctions)

See notes at bottom of page for data field descriptions

Re-sort results by Minimum Range, Time In.

Action NORAD
Catalog
Number
Name Days
Since
Epoch
Max
Probability
Dilution
Threshold
(km)
Min
Range
(km)
Relative
Velocity
(km/sec)
Start
(UTC)
TCA
(UTC)
Stop
(UTC)
19274 OKEAN-1 [?] 3.992 4.168E-03 0.029 0.121 2.358
26034 CELESTIS-03 & TAURUS R/B [+] 4.914 2018 Aug 18 18:58:12.447 2018 Aug 18 18:58:14.567 2018 Aug 18 18:58:16.687
40036 FLOCK 1C-6 [P] 3.852 2.887E-03 0.025 0.035 15.115
16496 SL-14 R/B [-] 3.359 2018 Aug 18 04:45:36.935 2018 Aug 18 04:45:37.266 2018 Aug 18 04:45:37.597
26410 CLUSTER II-FM7 (SAMBA) [+] -0.336 2.137E-03 1.131 4.309 0.001
26464 CLUSTER II-FM8 (TANGO) [+] 0.569 2018 Aug 15 04:45:31.718 2018 Aug 15 05:52:57.637 2018 Aug 15 06:58:50.222
14064 COSMOS 1461 [?] 5.707 2.015E-03 0.111 0.445 5.201
33845 COSMOS 2251 DEB [-] 6.856 2018 Aug 20 13:53:18.685 2018 Aug 20 13:53:19.643 2018 Aug 20 13:53:20.600
25275 IRIDIUM 59 [+] 6.588 1.766E-03 0.059 0.085 14.923
29802 FENGYUN 1C DEB [-] 6.019 2018 Aug 20 20:09:31.356 2018 Aug 20 20:09:31.691 2018 Aug 20 20:09:32.026
03669 ISIS 1 [?] 7.850 1.750E-03 0.389 0.572 14.928
43424 CZ-4C DEB [-] 8.399 2018 Aug 21 17:43:22.249 2018 Aug 21 17:43:22.581 2018 Aug 21 17:43:22.914
05104 ISIS 2 [?] 1.544 1.706E-03 0.342 0.666 13.401
07198 DELTA 1 DEB [-] 0.357 2018 Aug 15 04:43:52.318 2018 Aug 15 04:43:52.688 2018 Aug 15 04:43:53.058
07005 COSMOS 626 [?] 0.865 1.672E-03 0.085 0.152 14.141
08646 SL-8 R/B [-] 0.825 2018 Aug 15 09:31:20.061 2018 Aug 15 09:31:20.414 2018 Aug 15 09:31:20.767
07734 GEOS 3 [?] 2.099 1.482E-03 0.093 0.285 10.882
30139 FENGYUN 1C DEB [-] 2.317 2018 Aug 16 23:16:07.135 2018 Aug 16 23:16:07.594 2018 Aug 16 23:16:08.053
13923 NOAA 8 [-] 4.005 1.470E-03 0.037 0.139 7.305
34430 COSMOS 2251 DEB [-] 3.362 2018 Aug 18 12:42:06.673 2018 Aug 18 12:42:07.357 2018 Aug 18 12:42:08.042

10 records found

Data Fields:
  • Action: The Analysis button links to a page which provides a capability to build an interactive 3-D STK/CAT (Conjunction Analysis Tools) scenario detailing the conjunction.
  • NORAD Catalog Number: NORAD Catalog Numbers of the two conjuncting objects.
  • Name: Common names of the two conjuncting objects. Operational status of each object is shown in brackets, using the standard CelesTrak SATCAT codes.
  • Days Since Epoch: The number of days from the epoch of the NORAD two-line element set or operator ephemerides (green) used to produce the prediction until the time of closest approach for the conjunction.
  • Max Probability: Given fixed spherical object radii and relative distance at the time of closest approach (TCA), the projected covariance ellipse is sized and oriented to produce the maximum probability. For these reports the ratio of major-to-minor axes of the projected covariance ellipse is set using radial, in-track, and cross-track values of 100 m, 300 m, 100 m, respectively. If the combined object radius is greater than the relative distance, the maximum probability will be one; such occurrences are not addressed here.
  • Dilution Threshold (km): The standard deviation that produces the maximum probability defines the threshold of dilution. A smaller or larger standard deviation will produce a smaller probability. In the case of computing true probability with a smaller standard deviation, the data is of sufficient quality to associate low probability with low risk. For a larger standard deviation, this is not the case and the resulting true probability calculation becomes "diluted." If operating in this dilution region, the recommendation is to obtain better data and reassess the encounter. If time or resources do not permit, then the maximum probability should be used in place of the true probability.
  • Min Range (km): The distance between the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.
  • Start (UTC): Time when the two conjuncting objects come within the computation threshold from each other.
  • TCA (UTC): Time of closest approach.
  • Stop (UTC): Time when the two conjuncting objects move beyond the computation threshold from each other.
  • Relative Velocity (km/sec): Relative velocity of the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.

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Dr. T.S. Kelso [TS.Kelso@celestrak.com]
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Last updated: 2018 Aug 15 09:25:39 UTC
Accessed 1 times since 2000 December 16
Current system time: 2018 Aug 15 14:25:50 UTC