SOCRATES

Search Results


Search parameters:

  • Name(s): Top 10 by Maximum Probability
  • Order by Maximum Probability
  • Return first 10 items


Data current as of 2020 Jan 17 16:08 UTC

Computation Interval: Start = 2020 Jan 17 12:00:00.000, Stop = 2020 Jan 24 12:00:00.000
Computation Threshold: 5.0 km
Considering: 5,053 Primaries, 18,127 Secondaries (30,701 Conjunctions)

See notes at bottom of page for data field descriptions

Re-sort results by Minimum Range, Time In.

Action NORAD
Catalog
Number
Name Days
Since
Epoch
Max
Probability
Dilution
Threshold
(km)
Min
Range
(km)
Relative
Velocity
(km/sec)
Start
(UTC)
TCA
(UTC)
Stop
(UTC)
11788 COSMOS 1176 [?] 2.866 2.072E-02 0.016 0.035 13.460
22337 SL-16 DEB [-] 3.077 2020 Jan 19 11:16:37.434 2020 Jan 19 11:16:37.806 2020 Jan 19 11:16:38.177
18187 COSMOS 1867 [?] 4.642 3.601E-03 0.084 0.328 6.174
19455 DELTA 1 DEB [-] 7.452 2020 Jan 22 04:18:28.511 2020 Jan 22 04:18:29.319 2020 Jan 22 04:18:30.127
25320 IRIDIUM 71 [-] 4.089 2.946E-03 0.042 0.073 14.389
39964 COSMOS 1275 DEB [-] 4.727 2020 Jan 21 02:47:07.480 2020 Jan 21 02:47:07.828 2020 Jan 21 02:47:08.175
16681 COSMOS 1741 [?] 2.437 2.564E-03 0.076 0.314 3.830
24277 MIDORI (ADEOS) [-] 2.093 2020 Jan 19 14:14:54.573 2020 Jan 19 14:14:55.876 2020 Jan 19 14:14:57.179
18187 COSMOS 1867 [?] 0.469 1.820E-03 0.147 0.472 10.285
23432 SL-8 R/B [-] 0.882 2020 Jan 18 00:09:24.303 2020 Jan 18 00:09:24.787 2020 Jan 18 00:09:25.271
14064 COSMOS 1461 [?] 1.485 1.586E-03 0.141 0.447 10.686
35644 COSMOS 2251 DEB [-] 1.618 2020 Jan 18 22:49:39.903 2020 Jan 18 22:49:40.369 2020 Jan 18 22:49:40.835
27453 NOAA 17 [-] 0.436 1.521E-03 0.043 0.115 12.325
38138 FENGYUN 1C DEB [-] 0.515 2020 Jan 17 12:29:05.579 2020 Jan 17 12:29:05.984 2020 Jan 17 12:29:06.390
04327 SERT 2 [?] 4.846 1.468E-03 0.073 0.164 13.175
42221 COSMOS 1275 DEB [-] 5.159 2020 Jan 21 10:44:54.622 2020 Jan 21 10:44:55.001 2020 Jan 21 10:44:55.380
24795 IRIDIUM 5 [-] 0.578 1.260E-03 0.071 0.101 15.083
38345 H-2A DEB [-] 1.279 2020 Jan 17 16:53:09.507 2020 Jan 17 16:53:09.839 2020 Jan 17 16:53:10.170
41773 SKYSAT-C2 [+] 7.401 1.233E-03 0.024 0.035 15.183
43850 SHIELDS 1 [+] 7.684 2020 Jan 24 03:40:39.110 2020 Jan 24 03:40:39.439 2020 Jan 24 03:40:39.769

10 records found

Data Fields:
  • Action: The Analysis button links to a page which provides a capability to build an interactive 3-D STK/CAT (Conjunction Analysis Tools) scenario detailing the conjunction.
  • NORAD Catalog Number: NORAD Catalog Numbers of the two conjuncting objects.
  • Name: Common names of the two conjuncting objects. Operational status of each object is shown in brackets, using the standard CelesTrak SATCAT codes.
  • Days Since Epoch: The number of days from the epoch of the NORAD two-line element set or operator ephemerides (green) used to produce the prediction until the time of closest approach for the conjunction.
  • Max Probability: Given fixed spherical object radii and relative distance at the time of closest approach (TCA), the projected covariance ellipse is sized and oriented to produce the maximum probability. For these reports the ratio of major-to-minor axes of the projected covariance ellipse is set using radial, in-track, and cross-track values of 100 m, 300 m, 100 m, respectively. If the combined object radius is greater than the relative distance, the maximum probability will be one; such occurrences are not addressed here.
  • Dilution Threshold (km): The standard deviation that produces the maximum probability defines the threshold of dilution. A smaller or larger standard deviation will produce a smaller probability. In the case of computing true probability with a smaller standard deviation, the data is of sufficient quality to associate low probability with low risk. For a larger standard deviation, this is not the case and the resulting true probability calculation becomes "diluted." If operating in this dilution region, the recommendation is to obtain better data and reassess the encounter. If time or resources do not permit, then the maximum probability should be used in place of the true probability.
  • Min Range (km): The distance between the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.
  • Start (UTC): Time when the two conjuncting objects come within the computation threshold from each other.
  • TCA (UTC): Time of closest approach.
  • Stop (UTC): Time when the two conjuncting objects move beyond the computation threshold from each other.
  • Relative Velocity (km/sec): Relative velocity of the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.

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Dr. T.S. Kelso [TS.Kelso@celestrak.com]
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Last updated: 2020 Jan 17 17:50:07 UTC
Accessed 1 times since 2000 December 16
Current system time: 2020 Jan 17 18:39:40 UTC