SOCRATES

Search Results


Search parameters:

  • Name(s): Top 10 by Maximum Probability
  • Order by Maximum Probability
  • Return first 10 items


Data current as of 2020 Jul 04 16:05 UTC

Computation Interval: Start = 2020 Jul 04 12:00:00.000, Stop = 2020 Jul 11 12:00:00.000
Computation Threshold: 5.0 km
Considering: 5,530 Primaries, 18,833 Secondaries (33,721 Conjunctions)

See notes at bottom of page for data field descriptions

Re-sort results by Minimum Range, Time In.

Action NORAD
Catalog
Number
Name Days
Since
Epoch
Max
Probability
Dilution
Threshold
(km)
Min
Range
(km)
Relative
Velocity
(km/sec)
Start
(UTC)
TCA
(UTC)
Stop
(UTC)
06988 COSMOS 620 [?] 5.884 6.778E-02 0.002 0.004 13.892
44575 SL-14 DEB [-] 6.294 2020 Jul 09 19:10:53.488 2020 Jul 09 19:10:53.848 2020 Jul 09 19:10:54.208
25489 STEX [-] 4.009 3.718E-02 0.047 0.077 14.695
40796 COSMOS 2251 DEB [-] 4.869 2020 Jul 08 03:28:36.174 2020 Jul 08 03:28:36.514 2020 Jul 08 03:28:36.855
44484 AEROCUBE 10B (DOUGSAT) [+] 6.936 2.252E-02 0.003 0.014 0.000
44485 AEROCUBE 10A (JIMSAT) [+] 7.002 2020 Jul 04 12:00:00.000 2020 Jul 10 13:13:31.913 2020 Jul 11 12:00:00.000
24967 IRIDIUM 36 [-] 5.138 1.436E-02 0.018 0.034 14.292
31174 FENGYUN 1C DEB [-] 5.208 2020 Jul 08 21:50:51.599 2020 Jul 08 21:50:51.948 2020 Jul 08 21:50:52.298
13600 COSMOS 1412 [?] 5.435 1.140E-02 0.017 0.060 8.230
30365 FENGYUN 1C DEB [-] 5.487 2020 Jul 09 12:10:37.958 2020 Jul 09 12:10:38.565 2020 Jul 09 12:10:39.173
15516 METEOR 2-12 [?] 6.077 4.872E-03 0.025 0.101 4.129
10884 COSMOS 970 DEB [-] 6.188 2020 Jul 10 01:28:23.080 2020 Jul 10 01:28:24.290 2020 Jul 10 01:28:25.501
35686 APRIZESAT 3 [+] 1.241 2.914E-03 0.016 0.023 15.007
39552 COSMOS 2251 DEB [-] 1.758 2020 Jul 05 02:54:05.457 2020 Jul 05 02:54:05.790 2020 Jul 05 02:54:06.123
13027 COSMOS 1331 [?] 5.641 2.311E-03 0.023 0.047 14.142
05337 COSMOS 374 DEB [-] 5.526 2020 Jul 09 10:02:29.688 2020 Jul 09 10:02:30.042 2020 Jul 09 10:02:30.395
23323 IRS-P2 [-] 1.036 2.150E-03 0.031 0.123 5.476
40496 DMSP 5D-2 F13 DEB [-] 0.682 2020 Jul 04 23:06:03.044 2020 Jul 04 23:06:03.957 2020 Jul 04 23:06:04.870
25635 ORSTED [-] 3.885 1.585E-03 0.036 0.114 10.448
41090 NOAA 16 DEB [-] 4.444 2020 Jul 07 23:11:52.556 2020 Jul 07 23:11:53.034 2020 Jul 07 23:11:53.513

10 records found

Data Fields:
  • Action: The Analysis button links to a page which provides a capability to build an interactive 3-D STK/CAT (Conjunction Analysis Tools) scenario detailing the conjunction.
  • NORAD Catalog Number: NORAD Catalog Numbers of the two conjuncting objects.
  • Name: Common names of the two conjuncting objects. Operational status of each object is shown in brackets, using the standard CelesTrak SATCAT codes.
  • Days Since Epoch: The number of days from the epoch of the NORAD two-line element set or operator ephemerides (green) used to produce the prediction until the time of closest approach for the conjunction.
  • Max Probability: Given fixed spherical object radii and relative distance at the time of closest approach (TCA), the projected covariance ellipse is sized and oriented to produce the maximum probability. For these reports the ratio of major-to-minor axes of the projected covariance ellipse is set using radial, in-track, and cross-track values of 100 m, 300 m, 100 m, respectively. If the combined object radius is greater than the relative distance, the maximum probability will be one; such occurrences are not addressed here.
  • Dilution Threshold (km): The standard deviation that produces the maximum probability defines the threshold of dilution. A smaller or larger standard deviation will produce a smaller probability. In the case of computing true probability with a smaller standard deviation, the data is of sufficient quality to associate low probability with low risk. For a larger standard deviation, this is not the case and the resulting true probability calculation becomes "diluted." If operating in this dilution region, the recommendation is to obtain better data and reassess the encounter. If time or resources do not permit, then the maximum probability should be used in place of the true probability.
  • Min Range (km): The distance between the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.
  • Start (UTC): Time when the two conjuncting objects come within the computation threshold from each other.
  • TCA (UTC): Time of closest approach.
  • Stop (UTC): Time when the two conjuncting objects move beyond the computation threshold from each other.
  • Relative Velocity (km/sec): Relative velocity of the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.

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Dr. T.S. Kelso [TS.Kelso@celestrak.com]
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Last updated: 2020 Jul 04 19:00:01 UTC
Accessed 1 times since 2000 December 16
Current system time: 2020 Jul 05 00:29:50 UTC