SOCRATES

Search Results


Search parameters:

  • Name(s): Top 10 by Maximum Probability
  • Order by Maximum Probability
  • Return first 10 items


Data current as of 2020 Dec 03 00:06 UTC

Computation Interval: Start = 2020 Dec 03 00:00:00.000, Stop = 2020 Dec 10 00:00:00.000
Computation Threshold: 5.0 km
Considering: 6,053 Primaries, 19,881 Secondaries (39,625 Conjunctions)

See notes at bottom of page for data field descriptions

Re-sort results by Minimum Range, Time In.

Action NORAD
Catalog
Number
Name Days
Since
Epoch
Max
Probability
Dilution
Threshold
(km)
Min
Range
(km)
Relative
Velocity
(km/sec)
Start
(UTC)
TCA
(UTC)
Stop
(UTC)
44207 TIANHUI 2-01A [+] 1.004 2.271E-02 0.003 0.014 0.000
44209 TIANHUI 2-01B [+] 0.961 2020 Dec 03 00:00:00.000 2020 Dec 03 17:52:38.445 2020 Dec 06 01:55:07.793
20826 METEOR 2-20 [?] 2.642 8.684E-03 0.018 0.076 2.246
30142 FENGYUN 1C DEB [-] 2.685 2020 Dec 05 00:54:33.541 2020 Dec 05 00:54:35.766 2020 Dec 05 00:54:37.992
25482 ORBCOMM FM28 [-] 4.085 6.455E-03 0.011 0.044 4.497
24974 SL-8 DEB [-] 4.642 2020 Dec 06 20:17:29.104 2020 Dec 06 20:17:30.216 2020 Dec 06 20:17:31.328
44484 AEROCUBE 10B (DOUGSAT) [+] 1.995 4.499E-03 0.007 0.031 0.000
44485 AEROCUBE 10A (JIMSAT) [+] 1.995 2020 Dec 03 15:49:41.924 2020 Dec 04 18:18:24.238 2020 Dec 05 18:17:28.057
44747 STARLINK-1042 [+] 6.720 3.403E-03 0.009 0.034 7.274
35598 COSMOS 2251 DEB [-] 7.574 2020 Dec 09 02:34:49.514 2020 Dec 09 02:34:50.202 2020 Dec 09 02:34:50.889
47128 STARLINK-1837 [+] 2.503 2.905E-03 0.009 0.039 0.008
47144 STARLINK-1857 [+] 2.503 2020 Dec 05 07:54:23.013 2020 Dec 05 08:03:59.411 2020 Dec 05 08:13:33.747
35936 RUBIN 9.1 & RUBIN 9.2 [-] 4.359 2.333E-03 0.016 0.027 14.670
34003 COSMOS 2251 DEB [-] 5.581 2020 Dec 06 23:08:16.120 2020 Dec 06 23:08:16.461 2020 Dec 06 23:08:16.801
44768 STARLINK-1063 [+] 0.264 2.253E-03 0.016 0.028 14.655
46460 JILIN-01 GAOFEN 3H [+] 0.212 2020 Dec 03 01:58:14.944 2020 Dec 03 01:58:15.285 2020 Dec 03 01:58:15.626
47179 STARLINK-1913 [+] 6.538 1.710E-03 0.012 0.051 0.003
47180 STARLINK-1914 [+] 6.538 2020 Dec 09 08:31:11.275 2020 Dec 09 08:54:02.306 2020 Dec 09 09:16:29.102
27424 AQUA [+] 6.999 1.507E-03 0.112 0.171 14.844
26035 TAURUS DEB [-] 7.621 2020 Dec 09 20:18:23.055 2020 Dec 09 20:18:23.392 2020 Dec 09 20:18:23.728

10 records found

Data Fields:
  • Action: The Analysis button links to a page which provides a capability to build an interactive 3-D STK/CAT (Conjunction Analysis Tools) scenario detailing the conjunction.
  • NORAD Catalog Number: NORAD Catalog Numbers of the two conjuncting objects.
  • Name: Common names of the two conjuncting objects. Operational status of each object is shown in brackets, using the standard CelesTrak SATCAT codes.
  • Days Since Epoch: The number of days from the epoch of the NORAD two-line element set or operator ephemerides (green) used to produce the prediction until the time of closest approach for the conjunction.
  • Max Probability: Given fixed spherical object radii and relative distance at the time of closest approach (TCA), the projected covariance ellipse is sized and oriented to produce the maximum probability. For these reports the ratio of major-to-minor axes of the projected covariance ellipse is set using radial, in-track, and cross-track values of 100 m, 300 m, 100 m, respectively. If the combined object radius is greater than the relative distance, the maximum probability will be one; such occurrences are not addressed here.
  • Dilution Threshold (km): The standard deviation that produces the maximum probability defines the threshold of dilution. A smaller or larger standard deviation will produce a smaller probability. In the case of computing true probability with a smaller standard deviation, the data is of sufficient quality to associate low probability with low risk. For a larger standard deviation, this is not the case and the resulting true probability calculation becomes "diluted." If operating in this dilution region, the recommendation is to obtain better data and reassess the encounter. If time or resources do not permit, then the maximum probability should be used in place of the true probability.
  • Min Range (km): The distance between the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.
  • Start (UTC): Time when the two conjuncting objects come within the computation threshold from each other.
  • TCA (UTC): Time of closest approach.
  • Stop (UTC): Time when the two conjuncting objects move beyond the computation threshold from each other.
  • Relative Velocity (km/sec): Relative velocity of the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.