SOCRATES

Search Results


Search parameters:

  • Name(s): Top 10 by Maximum Probability
  • Order by Maximum Probability
  • Return first 10 items


Data current as of 2018 Oct 17 16:06 UTC

Computation Interval: Start = 2018 Oct 17 12:00:00.000, Stop = 2018 Oct 24 12:00:00.000
Computation Threshold: 5.0 km
Considering: 4,284 Primaries, 17,023 Secondaries (24,636 Conjunctions)

See notes at bottom of page for data field descriptions

Re-sort results by Minimum Range, Time In.

Action NORAD
Catalog
Number
Name Days
Since
Epoch
Max
Probability
Dilution
Threshold
(km)
Min
Range
(km)
Relative
Velocity
(km/sec)
Start
(UTC)
TCA
(UTC)
Stop
(UTC)
43493 SOYUZ-MS 09 [+] 0.992 1.000E+00 0.000 0.000 0.000
43630 HTV-7 (KOUNOTORI 7) [+] 0.992 2018 Oct 17 12:00:00.000 2018 Oct 17 12:00:00.000 2018 Oct 24 12:00:00.000
43537 PROGRESS-MS 09 [+] 0.992 1.000E+00 0.000 0.000 0.000
43630 HTV-7 (KOUNOTORI 7) [+] 0.992 2018 Oct 17 12:00:00.000 2018 Oct 17 12:00:00.000 2018 Oct 24 12:00:00.000
20436 SPOT 2 [-] 1.856 9.066E-02 0.012 0.019 14.898
33962 IRIDIUM 33 DEB [-] 2.622 2018 Oct 19 10:01:21.367 2018 Oct 19 10:01:21.703 2018 Oct 19 10:01:22.038
07490 METEOR 1-19 [?] 7.402 1.356E-02 0.015 0.059 5.801
20797 CZ-4 DEB [-] 7.299 2018 Oct 24 05:05:03.554 2018 Oct 24 05:05:04.416 2018 Oct 24 05:05:05.278
24793 IRIDIUM 7 [-] 3.818 7.671E-03 0.021 0.055 12.516
13467 COSMOS 1275 DEB [-] 4.652 2018 Oct 21 08:56:13.415 2018 Oct 21 08:56:13.814 2018 Oct 21 08:56:14.214
03597 OAO 2 [?] 2.689 4.167E-03 0.022 0.062 11.968
35282 COSMOS 2251 DEB [-] 2.657 2018 Oct 19 20:46:02.953 2018 Oct 19 20:46:03.371 2018 Oct 19 20:46:03.789
03615 ESSA 8 (TOS-F) [-] 6.941 3.527E-03 0.013 0.052 6.091
20238 SL-14 R/B [-] 6.626 2018 Oct 23 20:22:29.632 2018 Oct 23 20:22:30.453 2018 Oct 23 20:22:31.274
26410 CLUSTER II-FM7 (SAMBA) [+] -0.295 3.455E-03 0.877 3.431 0.001
26464 CLUSTER II-FM8 (TANGO) [+] 2.906 2018 Oct 17 13:39:39.668 2018 Oct 17 14:59:57.172 2018 Oct 17 16:17:45.297
27430 HAIYANG-1A [?] 6.478 2.884E-03 0.015 0.024 14.560
35110 FENGYUN 1C DEB [-] 6.857 2018 Oct 24 00:18:01.483 2018 Oct 24 00:18:01.826 2018 Oct 24 00:18:02.170
01291 SOLRAD 7B [?] 1.125 2.847E-03 0.026 0.078 11.086
02825 THOR AGENA D R/B [-] 1.111 2018 Oct 18 15:14:28.863 2018 Oct 18 15:14:29.314 2018 Oct 18 15:14:29.765

10 records found

Data Fields:
  • Action: The Analysis button links to a page which provides a capability to build an interactive 3-D STK/CAT (Conjunction Analysis Tools) scenario detailing the conjunction.
  • NORAD Catalog Number: NORAD Catalog Numbers of the two conjuncting objects.
  • Name: Common names of the two conjuncting objects. Operational status of each object is shown in brackets, using the standard CelesTrak SATCAT codes.
  • Days Since Epoch: The number of days from the epoch of the NORAD two-line element set or operator ephemerides (green) used to produce the prediction until the time of closest approach for the conjunction.
  • Max Probability: Given fixed spherical object radii and relative distance at the time of closest approach (TCA), the projected covariance ellipse is sized and oriented to produce the maximum probability. For these reports the ratio of major-to-minor axes of the projected covariance ellipse is set using radial, in-track, and cross-track values of 100 m, 300 m, 100 m, respectively. If the combined object radius is greater than the relative distance, the maximum probability will be one; such occurrences are not addressed here.
  • Dilution Threshold (km): The standard deviation that produces the maximum probability defines the threshold of dilution. A smaller or larger standard deviation will produce a smaller probability. In the case of computing true probability with a smaller standard deviation, the data is of sufficient quality to associate low probability with low risk. For a larger standard deviation, this is not the case and the resulting true probability calculation becomes "diluted." If operating in this dilution region, the recommendation is to obtain better data and reassess the encounter. If time or resources do not permit, then the maximum probability should be used in place of the true probability.
  • Min Range (km): The distance between the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.
  • Start (UTC): Time when the two conjuncting objects come within the computation threshold from each other.
  • TCA (UTC): Time of closest approach.
  • Stop (UTC): Time when the two conjuncting objects move beyond the computation threshold from each other.
  • Relative Velocity (km/sec): Relative velocity of the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.

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Dr. T.S. Kelso [TS.Kelso@celestrak.com]
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Last updated: 2018 Oct 17 17:29:02 UTC
Accessed 1 times since 2000 December 16
Current system time: 2018 Oct 17 19:01:49 UTC